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Quick Takes

Survey: Most CEOs Expect Economic Turnaround by 2024

The Conference Board 2023 C-Suite Outlook survey

Business leaders across the globe are girding for a year that’s been preceded by compounding global risks, from record prices to geopolitical instability. Yet many CEOs believe that growth in their regions will accelerate within the year. 

The Conference Board’s annual survey of C-suite executives reveals that most CEOs believe their region is in a recession, but 48% predict an economic turnaround by the end of 2023. Nearly as many (46%) believe a recession will last at least until mid-2024. 

Nearly half of CEOs in the U.S. (51%) and Europe (49%) believe that growth will resume by mid- to late 2023, while in China, executives have a more optimistic outlook (59%). CEOs in Latin America, who alone cited declining trust in government as a top-tier concern, were most pessimistic, with 64% saying a recession will last until 2024 or beyond. 

Although the global economy is on a downward trend, the report’s authors do not forecast a global recession. Rather, they see weakened GDP growth of 2.1%: “A pace that does not formally constitute a global recession but, if achieved, would be the weakest growth rate since 2001 (outside of global recession years 2009 and 2020).” They also forecast regional recessions, most likely in the U.S., Europe and some of the largest Latin American economies, while Russia and Ukraine would remain in recession longer. 

When It Comes to AI in Daily Life, Americans Are More Concerned Than Excited

Even before ChatGPT burst onto the scene and into the collective conversation, artificial intelligence has been ubiquitous for anyone connected to the internet. A recent survey from Pew shows how people feel about using AI in their daily life.

The survey found that 38% of respondents said they were more concerned than excited about AI’s increased use in daily life, while only 15% said they were mostly excited. The largest share of people, 46%, said they were equally concerned and excited. 

The survey also revealed a disconnect between people’s general awareness of AI in their daily lives and their understanding of how it actually is being used. Americans can correctly identify common activities that rely on some form of AI — from product recommendations you see online to music recommendations to wearable devices that analyze exercise and sleep patterns. But only three-in-10 were able to correctly identify all the uses of AI asked about in the survey (there were six total scenarios). 

How Much Growth Potential Is There in the Metaverse?

For all its hype, the Metaverse has yet to live up to its potential. Even though it’s still evolving, businesses are seeking to understand the opportunities in this digital future. 

A new report by Statista reveals what growth in the Metaverse could look like over the next decade. According to the analysis in its Advertising & Media Markets Insights, a conservative scenario forecasts 15% of the digital economy shifting to the Metaverse, while a more optimistic view has it around 35%.   

Also in the report: the largest segments in terms of revenue in 2030 will be gaming ($163 billion) and e-commerce ($201 billion). By then, the metaverse’s reach is projected to be 700 million people, worldwide. 

China’s Official Count of COVID Deaths Differs From What Many Experts Estimate

In February, China declared a “decisive victory” for its handling of COVID, citing its low mortality rate when compared to other countries. An official count from the government puts the total death toll at 83,150 (as of Feb. 9), which would give China the lowest death rate per capita of any other major country: six deaths per 100,000 people, compared to the U.S.’s 337 and the U.K.’s 307. 

But researchers who have been studying the pandemic say that China has vastly undercounted its deaths from the disease. Reporting from the New York Times rounded up four separate academic studies looking at China’s most recent COVID wave that accelerated after the government relaxed its Zero-COVID restrictions in December. They all pointed to similar results: That wave may have killed between one million and 1.5 million people.

While there is no way to confirm China’s official count, researchers say that the way officials counted deaths was incomplete as it only accounted for those who died in the hospital, not those who died at home. Noting gaps in the data, many epidemiologists, such as those from Fudan University in Shanghai, developed models based on previous outbreaks to determine how the virus might spread across China’s population.  

“If the data say what we think they say, this was an explosive wave,” Lauren Ancel Meyers, a professor of biology and statistics at the University of Texas at Austin, told The New York Times.

Despite Forming New Trade Area, Intra-Continental Trade Still Low in Africa 

When Africa created the world’s largest trading area — the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) — in January 2021, it set out to stimulate intra-regional trade and strengthen African economies. Participants hoped to boost intra-African trade by around 40%.  

But the continent is still a long way from achieving its potential when compared to other regions’ internal trading numbers. According to the most recent Ibrahim Index of African Governance, most African countries mainly trade outside of the region. Only five African countries do most of their trading in Africa: Mali, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Lesotho.

Intra-continental trade only constitutes around 12% of Africa’s total trade, compared to 66.9% in Europe, 63.8% in Asia, and 44.4% in the Americas.

The report underscores the importance of this trade agreement as a mechanism to bolster Africa’s resilience: “The dependence on external markets leaves the continent highly exposed to crises and shocks in other parts of the world, as showcased by the impact of COVID-19 and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.”

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