The global supply of commodities — particularly Russian and Ukrainian exports such as crude oil and cereals — is at risk. G-7 members have unanimously chosen to impose sanctions on Russia, but the direct impacts of reduced trade with those countries may be weaker than some might imagine.

In aggregate, G-7 nations have a low reliance on Russia and Ukraine for most commodity imports. In 2020, for example, member countries imported only 2% ($97 billion) of their total commodity imports from Russia and Ukraine. The Ukraine crisis has put the supply of these commodities particularly at risk, and countries such as Germany have already begun cautioning businesses and households to reduce their gas consumption. Furthermore, the other commodities that G-7 countries import from Russia and Ukraine largely consist of key raw materials such as fertilizers and aluminum. Downstream impacts are already being felt in G-7 economies, which will only intensify in the coming months.

Compounding the impacts of reduced commodity supply are the cascading effects of logistics constraints and increased energy prices. Tanker rates, for example, have increased as much as 240% since the crisis. Such trends are expected to further accelerate commodity price hikes. Ultimately, the effects of the Ukraine crisis on the commodity market will continue to have implications for G-7 countries in the foreseeable future — directly or indirectly.

Ukraine’s relatively lower rate of vaccination against COVID-19 is a growing concern for neighboring countries, which have collectively welcomed more than 3.5 million displaced people since the conflict began. In Ukraine, 35 of every 100 people are fully vaccinated, compared to an EU average of 75 per 100, a global average of 57, and 48 in the top five host countries for Ukrainian refugees — Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Moldova. 

The displacement of Ukrainians is placing ongoing stress on already stretched health care resources in host countries. Polish hospitals may only have capacity to treat 7,000 Ukrainian patients, compared to the more than 2 million refugees already in Poland. 

Humanitarian crises have severe health consequences for the affected population — physical and mental, as well as acute and chronic. Even when refugees leave Ukraine in relatively good health, they face increased risk of malnutrition, injury and disease, due to harsh or dangerous conditions on the way and limited medical support both in transit and in their host countries. 

High-income countries have, on average, administered nearly 25 times more doses of coronavirus vaccines than low-income countries, according to Our World in Data. The data reveal a stark difference in vaccination programs by country: Richer countries have administered nearly 170 doses per 100 residents, compared to just seven in low-income countries. 

Lower-income countries have suffered from a lack of vaccine supplies and other logistical challenges. Many have relied on COVAX, which originally aimed to provide two billion doses by the end of 2021. 

Yet, export bans, production problems and hoarding by wealthy nations have severely undermined this number, with one report saying that just over 1.1 billion doses had been delivered by the end of January. At the current pace, 109 countries would miss out on fully vaccinating 70% of their populations by the start of July 2022, says the WHO.

The lack of vaccine access in poor countries (and vaccine hesitancy anywhere) results in persistent transmission of SARS-Cov-2, which works in favor of new variants emerging. This will continue straining health care systems and further jeopardize work-life equality, labor force participation and the careers of women — who have already suffered disproportionate job and income loss during the pandemic.