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1 in 5 People Will Live in Sub-Saharan Africa By 2030

 

The world’s population will grow to an estimated 10.9 billion by the end of the 21st century, with 8 out of 10 people projected to live in Asia or Africa, estimates Our World in Data. Five of the most populous countries are expected to be in Africa: Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Egypt.

But the growth rate of the African population, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, is projected to accelerate more quickly than other regions. Due to factors like declining infant mortality rate and increased life expectancy, the population is forecast to triple from 1.3 billion to 4.3 billion by 2100. And by 2030, one in five people will live in sub-Saharan Africa. The World Bank estimates that this will continue to concentrate poverty in the region. By 2030, nine in 10 people living in extreme poverty are expected to be in sub-Saharan Africa.

Over the past 50 years, Asia experienced the most rapid population growth, with 4.6 billion people living in the region — most of them in China (1.4 billion) or India (1.3 billion). Analysts expect that growth to top 5 billion people by 2050. North, South, and Central America, and Oceania are forecast to have more modest growth than Africa, while Europe’s population is expected to fall.

Analysis: COVID Cost Employers $213 Billion in Lost Hours in the US

Roughly 6.6 billion hours were lost over two years due to the pandemic, according to a new report from the Integrated Benefits Institute. Researchers estimate the cost associated with those hours to be $213.1 billion ($167.4 billion in the first year and $45.7 billion in the second).

According to its analysis, the industries that suffered the most economically were educational services, health care, and social assistance ($30.8 billion); public administration ($27.1 billion); construction ($23.9 billion); waste management services ($22.4 billion); and manufacturing ($21.5 billion).

The top reason for lost hours include economic issues, accounting for 44% of the reasons in year one and 36% in year two. Examples of economic issues include slack (or slow) work, business conditions, or workers could only find part-time work. The report cites an example of slack work or business conditions as a “temporary closure due to the pandemic.” 

Data from two years prior to the pandemic shows that economic reasons accounted for 36.3% of lost hours, indicating that the sharp increase in year one of the pandemic had almost completely receded in year two, when the researchers note a spike in personal leave instead.

Survey: Indians See China and U.S. as Top Military Threats

A new survey sheds light on how Indians view their diplomatic relationships with two global superpowers.

According to research conducted by Morning Consult, Indians view China (43% of respondents) as their country’s biggest threat, followed by the U.S. (22%). Pakistan and Russia follow each with 13% of citizens saying these countries are India’s biggest threat.    

While India’s mistrust of the U.S. may be surprising, given that it is seen as an even bigger threat than its longtime rival Pakistan, the authors point to India’s pragmatic approach to dealing with competing superpowers.  

“As tensions between Washington and Beijing increase, the Indian public may be worried about getting caught in the middle of a U.S.-China conflict that destabilizes regional security, putting India at risk,” the authors said.

Complicating the relationship between the world’s two largest democracies even further is the conflict in Ukraine. The study finds that a significant share of Indians believe that that the U.S. (26%) and NATO (18%) are responsible for instigating that conflict. Together those results are higher than the share who believe that Russia, which invaded Ukraine in February of 2022, is responsible (38%) the conflict.

Survey: Most CEOs Expect Economic Turnaround by 2024

The Conference Board 2023 C-Suite Outlook survey

Business leaders across the globe are girding for a year that’s been preceded by compounding global risks, from record prices to geopolitical instability. Yet many CEOs believe that growth in their regions will accelerate within the year. 

The Conference Board’s annual survey of C-suite executives reveals that most CEOs believe their region is in a recession, but 48% predict an economic turnaround by the end of 2023. Nearly as many (46%) believe a recession will last at least until mid-2024. 

Nearly half of CEOs in the U.S. (51%) and Europe (49%) believe that growth will resume by mid- to late 2023, while in China, executives have a more optimistic outlook (59%). CEOs in Latin America, who alone cited declining trust in government as a top-tier concern, were most pessimistic, with 64% saying a recession will last until 2024 or beyond. 

Although the global economy is on a downward trend, the report’s authors do not forecast a global recession. Rather, they see weakened GDP growth of 2.1%: “A pace that does not formally constitute a global recession but, if achieved, would be the weakest growth rate since 2001 (outside of global recession years 2009 and 2020).” They also forecast regional recessions, most likely in the U.S., Europe and some of the largest Latin American economies, while Russia and Ukraine would remain in recession longer. 

Recessions’ Negative Effects on Public Health

If past recessions are any indication, governments and businesses need to be on alert regarding the health repercussions of an economic downturn. 

As the Global Risks Report 2023 indicates, economic pressures are likely to intensify. Periods of economic decline are linked to considerable increases in excess mortality, with higher rates persisting years after the event. Job losses can also drive spikes in suicide rates, with men typically more affected. During the 2007-08 global financial crisis (GFC) there were 12-times more suicides among men than women in the U.S.

Recessions can contribute to spikes in conditions ranging from depression to non-communicable diseases such as cardiovascular disease and cancers, as well as malnutrition and greater susceptibility to infections. A study linked 260,000 excess cancer-related deaths in OECD countries to GFC-prompted unemployment and reduced health expenditure. The relentless stress of joblessness is associated with higher mortality.

Economic uncertainty can also impact health systems’ financial resilience — either through deliberate spending cuts, declining GDP or inflation-linked escalating costs. Recession repercussions will add to existing crises for the health sector, such as long-standing workforce-related issues. While recession-linked impacts will be shaped by national contexts, a failure to prepare for the health consequences of a looming economic downturn puts already-suffering populations at further risk.

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