The Edge of Risk Menu Search
New thinking on corporate risk and resilience in the global economy.

Quick Takes

Demand for Housing Soared in 2020, Despite the Pandemic

Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Global housing prices rose by about 71% in 2020, despite COVID-based economic recessions. Of the 50 countries analyzed by the International Monetary Fund, the Philippines experienced the highest increase in housing prices (20% year-over-year), followed by Portugal and Latvia.

The housing market was exposed to many changes this year with record-low mortgage rates and a new motive for people to relocate. As COVID-19 pushed millions into lockdown, people started to re-evaluate the spaces they had been living in, especially during the first six months of the pandemic. This trend may continue as businesses consider extending remote work arrangements for the upcoming months and into the future. 

During the last global recession — nearly a decade ago — house prices decreased by an average of 10%. However, experts are optimistic about the current state of the housing market and predicting that this upward trend of prices will continue in 2021.

Foreign Aid Is at a Record Peak, But Is It Enough?

Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

Foreign aid rose to an all-time high of $161.2 billion last year, a 3.5% increase from 2019. In many cases, larger economies directed these funds to countries in need of significant help to respond to the short-term impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the OECD. 

An OECD survey shows that the foreign aid supported health systems, humanitarian aid and food security. However, OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría added that there will need to be “a much greater effort to help developing countries with vaccine distribution … to build a truly global recovery.” 

Internationally, governments approved $16 trillion worth of COVID-19 stimulus measures, but only 1% was used to help developing countries handle the virus. Trade, foreign direct investment and remittances in developing countries have also declined as a result of the pandemic, intensifying their need for support.

Why Are Central Banks Creating Digital Currencies?

Source: Atlantic Council

Nineteen countries have started to test a central bank digital currency (CBDC) on a small-scale with a limited number of participants. The Atlantic Council defines CBDC as “the digital form of a country’s fiat currency that is also a claim on the central bank.”

As of today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are prominent players in the digital currency realm. The United States currently lags behind in the research phase, yet the Federal Reserve has expressed continued interest in the digital dollar.

As digital currencies expand globally, there are challenges ahead — the legal, political and regulatory properties of CBDCs remain unclear. But the IMF notes that there are also multiple benefits to having government involvement in digital currencies, including lower cash transfer costs, greater accessibility to banking services and easier implementation of monetary policies. 

The Great Commodity Bounceback

Source: World Bank

Most global commodity prices were higher than their pre-pandemic levels during the first quarter of 2021. Metal prices are expected to continue their upward trend, rising by 30% during 2021, according to the World Bank. This jump in commodity prices parallels the rise in global economic activity, the impact of stimulus bills and changes in supply factors.  

The crude oil industry saw a record-fast recovery after a price and demand collapse in 2020. The predicted average cost of crude oil for this year is $56 per barrel —  about one-third higher than its cost in 2020. Natural gas prices also rose by one-third as a result of increased demand during the winter season.

The World Bank expects that price levels will “remain close to current levels throughout the year” driven by “global economic rebound and improved growth prospects.” The report notes that all commodity markets heavily depend on how long the economic implications from the pandemic last and how well the risk is managed by governments.

COVID-19 Threatens Press Freedom Across the World

Source: Reporters Without Borders (RSF)

Note: White represents “Good Situation,” yellow represents “Satisfactory Situation,” orange represents “Problematic Situation,” red represents “Difficult Situation” and black represents “Very Serious Situation.”

Journalistic efforts were completely blocked or severely disrupted in 73% of the 180 countries analyzed in the 2021 World Press Freedom Index. Last year, only 7% had a “favorable environment for journalists,” compared to 8% of the countries in 2019.

“The coronavirus pandemic has been used as grounds to block journalists’ access to information sources and reporting in the field,” the report notes. The largest drop in ranking was Malaysia — down 18 places at 119 — as a result of increased censorship. Countries in Asia, the Middle East and Africa ranked the lowest due to internet censorship, surveillance and propaganda — especially in China, which ranked 177th. 

Norway ranked first in the index, followed by Finland and Sweden. Europe and the Americas remain the most favorable continents for press freedom, despite “abuses” and “violations” against press freedom increasing. At the same time, the public is putting an increasing amount of trust in business, as opposed to media, along with expectations for social leadership, according to Edelman’s latest Trust Barometer.

BRINK’s daily newsletter offers new thinking on corporate risk and resilience. Subscribe