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The Worst-Case Scenario for Global Trade Conflict
Yesterday, we had good news to share about the link between global value chains and poverty reduction. However, the World Bank’s World Development Report 2020 offers a grim prognosis for world trade and poverty reduction should global trade conflict — in particular, the conflict between the United States and China — worsen.
“If the trade conflict worsens and leads to a slump in investor confidence, effects on global growth and poverty could be significant — up to 30.7 million people could be pushed into poverty, measured as an income level of less than $5.50 a day, and global income could fall as much as $1.4 trillion in a worst-case scenario,” wrote the report’s authors. Moreover, “low- and middle-income countries other than China would bear roughly half of the global income loss.”