Quick Takes

Given the scale and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the typical vaccine development timeline of 8-15 years is unpalatable. It may be possible that a vaccine gets FDA approval by year-end, but operational challenges will extend the timeline for scaling the vaccine into 2021 and beyond. These challenges include high adoption and series completion, high volume production and equitable distribution, as well as Americans being less inclined to immediately take the vaccine.

Oliver Wyman modeling work suggests that vaccine uptake will need to be very high to suppress the pandemic — exceeding typical two-dose vaccination completion rates. Assuming two doses per patient, vaccinating 60% of just the adult population is about 6.5 billion doses. Production is further complicated by the range of vaccine platforms under development.

Lastly, vaccine production is centered in the U.S., China, and Western Europe, however people living in low- and middle-income countries account for 79% of the world population. Distribution logistics are also more complex than those of a typical vaccine. This week, the World Bank approved a $12 billion distribution strategy to help developing countries receive a future vaccine.

Less than half of workers surveyed worldwide believe their organization is doing enough to support their physical and mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic — despite four in five employers’ belief that they are providing such support. At the same time, only about half of employees surveyed think their executives are genuinely concerned about their wellbeing, according to a report by the IBM Institute for Business Value.

This research illustrates a stark contrast between how employers feel they handle the sudden shift to remote work and how employees feel it was actually handled. IBM interviewed 3,450 executives in 20 countries and sent online questionnaires to 50,000 people in eight countries. Many of the people surveyed also expressed how overworked and disconnected they are when working remotely.  

As many organizations consider their post-COVID business strategy, these findings show that executives must align with their employees’ priorities and needs. “Employers significantly overestimate the effectiveness of their support and training efforts,” concludes the report. To build successful businesses, IBM says that executives should “enable a diverse workforce to perform optimally.”

Singapore once again tops Oliver Wyman’s 2020 Urban Mobility Readiness Index. This sovereign island city-state in Southeast Asia invested in one of the world’s first automated rail systems as a leader in forward-looking traffic management. 

European cities also dominate the index’s top 10, as most have easily accessible, highly sanitized and safe transportation. These qualities make these cities more resilient to handle future disruptions, like the pandemic. Oliver Wyman based its city ranking this year on infrastructure, innovation and focus on preparedness. 

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many people to consider relocating as many jobs turned into permanently remote roles. Oliver Wyman found that for cities to flourish in the post-COVID world, they will need a holistic and forward-looking mobility plan. “Many cities around the world were at a tipping point, even before COVID and while we won’t know the true impact on cities yet, the cities that ranked high are in a better position to meet future challenges,” said Guillaume Thibault, one of the creators of the index.

Western Europe is experiencing a second spike in COVID-19 cases, especially in Spain and France. Testing improvements have allowed most Western European countries to catch a greater proportion of COVID-19 cases in mid-September compared to mid-April — however, this is not the case for all countries.

Travel and tourism contributed to some of these late-summer outbreaks. For instance, in Germany, nearly 40% of new infections were brought back by returning vacationers. Additionally, some groups of younger people have neglected to follow social distancing measures: 15- to 24-year-olds now represent 15% of new cases in the EU, a rate three times higher than recorded in April. Quarantine fatigue is also taking a toll, as increasing disillusionment with regulations is resulting in subsequent declines in social distancing.

To avoid broad lockdowns and business restrictions, governments are focusing on alternative prevention measures, such as mask mandates, targeted business closures and travel screenings for those returning from high-risk areas.