Business leaders across the globe are girding for a year that’s been preceded by compounding global risks, from record prices to geopolitical instability. Yet many CEOs believe that growth in their regions will accelerate within the year. 

The Conference Board’s annual survey of C-suite executives reveals that most CEOs believe their region is in a recession, but 48% predict an economic turnaround by the end of 2023. Nearly as many (46%) believe a recession will last at least until mid-2024. 

Nearly half of CEOs in the U.S. (51%) and Europe (49%) believe that growth will resume by mid- to late 2023, while in China, executives have a more optimistic outlook (59%). CEOs in Latin America, who alone cited declining trust in government as a top-tier concern, were most pessimistic, with 64% saying a recession will last until 2024 or beyond. 

Although the global economy is on a downward trend, the report’s authors do not forecast a global recession. Rather, they see weakened GDP growth of 2.1%: “A pace that does not formally constitute a global recession but, if achieved, would be the weakest growth rate since 2001 (outside of global recession years 2009 and 2020).” They also forecast regional recessions, most likely in the U.S., Europe and some of the largest Latin American economies, while Russia and Ukraine would remain in recession longer. 

There is a strong consensus among governments and businesses across the globe about what they see as top immediate threats to their citizens and stakeholders. 

In the latest Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), respondents — who include experts across academia, business and government — agree that the most severe risk to global stability in the short-term revolves around the cost of basic necessities, especially food and fuel.

They also view extreme weather events and geopolitical confrontation as the most severe risks to consider over the next two years, as highlighted in the 2023 Global Risks Report. 

There were some notable differences, with businesses putting more weight into cybercrime and cyber insecurity as an immediate risk, and governments focused on climate change mitigation and adaptation.  

Of course, these are all complex and interconnected challenges. They “cannot be solely solved by short-term decision-making. … Business leaders and policy-makers need to embrace complexity and adopt a dual vision that more effectively balances current crisis management with a longer-term lens,” according to the report.

When it comes to retail, employers only added 9,000 jobs in December, according to the latest U.S. jobs report. This is lower than the monthly average of 16,000 jobs added throughout 2022. But one bright spot was grocery hiring. Grocery stores accounted for 5,700 retail jobs to close out the year.

This jobs report signals that the labor market is cooling slightly, even while unemployment matches the historic pre-pandemic low. Employers added 223,000 jobs in December, the smallest gains in two years, while unemployment fell to 3.5% from 3.7% in November.

Signs of a slowing retail sector were spotted in November — a prescient month to gauge the holiday shopping season. Consumers pulled back on retail spending, with declines in categories such as clothing and electronics. Meanwhile spending on services and experiences — restaurants, bars and travel — saw a bump, signaling that consumers were ready to splurge on activities they weren’t able to during the pandemic.